Growth plan for Kosas, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Kosas already shows 20,287 reviews and a free Mini Revealer Concealer on orders $80+. The plan turns that proof into creator videos and new ads each week, and protects one number: a $13.44 target CAC.
- Target CAC
- $13.44
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: a $13.44 CAC on a $32.00 concealer
The one number to protect is a $13.44 target CAC. It is 0.6 of the $22.40 ceiling, so there is room for error. Every Revealer Concealer shade test and every creator brief answers to it. If CAC drifts above it, spend stops growing until the ad is fixed or killed.
Protect
Target CAC: $13.44 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $28 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $22.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $22.40 = $13.44. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $283.50.
Three moves
- I kill losing ads early, before they sit above the $13.44 guard line for long.
- Every landing page carries the free shipping at $50+ and the free Mini Revealer Concealer at $80+.
- I report daily CAC, so a drifting ad is paused the same day it drifts.
- reviews shown on the Kosas site
- 20,287
- Published
- US order value for free shipping and free returns
- $50+
- Published
- ingredients Kosas says it bans
- 2700
- Published
02 Variety
38 Revealer Concealer variants need more than one ad
Each ad concept carries one reason to buy and one product: the Soulgazer Mascara at $28.00, the Revealer Skin-Improving Foundation SPF 25 at $45.00, or the Face Framers Set at $65.00. I change one variable per test and keep the hook library growing.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Cleaner ingredients | We ban over 2700 ingredients and adhere to the Sephora and Credo clean standards. | 10 |
| 10% off the first order | 10% Off Your First Order | 2 |
| Makeup removal study | 100% removal of makeup | 2 |
| Verified review volume | Kosas Reviews | 18,000+ Verified Clean Makeup & Skincare | 1 |
| Lash volume study | +97% increase in lash volume | 1 |
| Safe for sensitive skin | Dermatologist tested. Hypoallergenic. Non-acnegenic. Safe for sensitive skin. 95% naturally derived. | 1 |
| Free shipping + returns | Free Shipping on US Orders $50+ & Free Returns | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Free shipping at $50+ and a gift at $80+ can hide a weak CAC
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free shipping at $50+ lets cheap minis lift orders without lifting order value | Med | High | Both | Average order value holds at the $28 assumption at the first gate, or the offers change. |
| Orders ship in 2-3 business days, so creator buzz meets a wait | Med | Med | Your team | Shipping time is stated on every landing page before the first test goes live. |
| Event tracking is incomplete, so CAC is read wrong | High | High | Your team | Purchase events match the store's orders within one day before spend passes $3,000. |
| Creators overclaim on skincare, outside the brand's own wording | Med | High | Both | Every brief quotes a claims sheet; any video outside it is pulled before posting. |
| Test ads fail to clear the $13.44 guard line | High | Med | Me | Any ad above the guard line is paused once its test budget is spent. |
| Struck-through set prices clash with the 10% off first-order offer in one ad | Med | Low | Your team | One offer per landing page; set prices and the first-order code never share an ad. |
| Creators arrive slower than two a week, so videos lag the plan | Med | Med | Me | Ten creators live by week six; if fewer, test spend steps down in the same week. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
A $22.40 ceiling, with a guard line at $13.44
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $28 (range $5.00–$210.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $22.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $13.44 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $28 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $22.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $22.40 = $13.44. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $283.50.
Range across the assumptions: $3 to $284.
Ceiling: $28 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $22.40. The $28 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses; the guard line is 0.6 × $22.40 = $13.44. Week one replaces them with your numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests cost $24,000 before any scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $13 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $13 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $13 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $13 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $13 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $13 |
Six weeks, Proposed. Weeks one and two run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, with $14,000 spent by week four.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
From 20 to 80 ad concepts, winners grow from 2 to 8
More concepts mean more shots at a winner. 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 give 8 and $72,000. How many concepts win and what each winner spends are my guesses, labelled Assumption in the table.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 follows proof, starting with Soulgazer Mascara
- Meta tests: new ads each week
- $50,000
- 50%
- Scaling spend on proven winners
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $15,000
- 15%
- Landing pages and reporting
- $10,000
- 10%
These percentages are Proposed and shift toward scaling as winners appear, never toward ads that miss the guard line.
The math. 50% × $100,000 = $50,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because 20,287 reviews give ads proof to show
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one | Shade demos and the first-order offer fit short video; 20,287 reviews give ads proof to show. |
| TikTok | When two creator angles clear the $13.44 guard line on Meta | Same creator videos, new audience, for Soulgazer Mascara and Lip Pulse demos. |
| Google Search | Once branded demand shows up from creator videos | People who watch a Revealer Concealer demo search shade names and the brand. |
| Email list | Week one, with the 10% off first order sign-up | The join-the-list offer exists; it turns paid clicks into repeat orders, which payback needs. |
| After creative winners are proven on Meta | Sets and brush tools suit saved-for-later shopping; tested last, only with proven ads. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
At a $25 CAC the plan stops; at $5 the first order pays
Payback is the real constraint. At a $5 CAC the first order pays back with $17.40 left. At $15 it pays back after repeat orders with $7.40 left. At $25 it never pays back and I stop, at −$2.60; at $30 it is −$7.60.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $11.20, $22.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $11.20 | $22.40 | $17.40 | First order |
| $15 | $11.20 | $22.40 | $7.40 | After repeat orders |
| $25 | $11.20 | $22.40 | −$2.60 | Never: stop |
| $30 | $11.20 | $22.40 | −$7.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $22.40 − $5 = $17.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC $15: $22.40 − $15 = $7.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $25: $22.40 − $25 = −$2.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $30: $22.40 − $30 = −$7.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
I run ads and creators; you keep the $50+ shipping promise
Covers
- Meta ad strategy, creative testing and new concepts every week
- Creator recruiting, briefs and a claims sheet from Kosas's own wording
- Landing pages for the first-order and free-shipping offers
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking setup: I spec it, your team builds it
- Shipping, returns and the 2-3 business day processing
- Formulas and ingredient claims beyond Kosas's own wording
- Anything in your ad account I haven't been given access to
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking matches store orders and at least one ad is under the $13.44 guard line. | Purchase events still don't match store orders. |
| Day 30 | Week four spend of $14,000 is done and at least one winner holds CAC at $13.44 or lower. | No ad is under $22.40 after $14,000 of tests. |
| Day 60 | The $24,000 test is done and blended CAC is at or under $13.44. | Blended CAC is still above $22.40. |
| Day 90 | Scaled spend holds a $13.44 CAC and payback shows after repeat orders. | Payback falls to the Never: stop scenario. |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Soulgazer Mascara at $28.00, Mini Soulgazer Mascara at $17.00 | A hook library and one-variable tests | 1st |
| creators | 20,287 reviews to brief creators from | Ten live creators by week six | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Brow Pop Nano page: 100% agreed after 7 days | A sheet of the brand's own wording only | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Free shipping at $50+, 10% off first order | One page per creator angle | 2nd |
| reporting | A 10% off first-order offer to track | Daily CAC and a weekly learnings report | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 20,287 reviews shown on the Kosas site | https://kosas.com/pages/product-reviews | Fact |
| $50+ US order value for free shipping and free returns | https://kosas.com/ | Fact |
| 2700 ingredients Kosas says it bans | https://kosas.com/pages/tinted-skincare-lineup | Fact |
| Product prices $5.00–$210.00 | product prices in the site product data (67 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $28 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $13.44 target CAC | 0.6 of the $22.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $22.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 50% / 25% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read the Soulgazer Mascara and Revealer Concealer pages into a claims sheet, spec the tracking with your team, brief the first two creators and launch the first 12 ads at $250 each.
